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HomeMy WebLinkAboutTowncrest Redevelopment Study TOWNCREST URBAN RENEWAL PLAN REDEVELOPMENT STUDY May 13, 2013 Prepared by: Teague Case Chenyu Fu Trent Good Kelsey Hull Abby Karch Zachary Leith Nicholas Melrose Matthew Mitchell Brian Mlot Huyen Pham Matthew Smego Zachary Steinhoff Michael Styler Mitchell Vogt Wade Williams Edited by: John G. Gallo, Ph.D.,CFA®,CFP® Department of Finance University of Iowa Iowa City, IA 52245 john-gallo@uiowa.edu 1 FOREWORD This study was requested by the Planning and Community Development Department of the City of Iowa City. We wish to thank the Department staff, in particular Stephen Long and Tracy Hightshoe, for their assistance and the educational opportunity afforded by the Towncrest project. This report is submitted by preparers for academic credit in partial fulfillment of the requirements of a Spring, 2013 University of Iowa course: 6F:109 Topics in Finance. Unless otherwise noted, all economic and demographic data is obtained from the Esri and SimplyMap databases. With the exception of property cost and revenue estimates provided by various real estate professionals, all other information used in the study was obtained from publicly available sources. Any errors are the responsibility of the editor. We wish to recognize and acknowledge the material contributions to this study provided by the following firms and individuals: CG Hanson, Inc (Charlie Graves), Cedar Rapids Assessor (Scott Labus, Ed Saunders, Beth Weeks), Cook Appraisal (Casey Cook, Rochelle Dietiker, Nick Faselt), Fineline Diversified Development (Bill Boecker), Frantz-Hobart Investment (Mike Frantz), Iowa City Assessor (Dennis Baldridge, Brad Comer), Lepic-Kroeger Realtors (Jeff Edberg), MDK Development (Kevin Digmann), MRS Appraisals (Hal Kleinsmith), National Development Council (Raquel Favela), PFM Group (Randall Bauer), Skogman Commercial Realty (Scott Olson), Vernon Research Group (Monica Vernon), UI Hawkinson Institute (Brian Richman), and UI Pomerantz Library (Kim Bloedel). Thanks also to the University of Iowa Finance Department (Erik Lie, Bev Berg). 2 I. STUDY OBJECTIVE A. Overview Our initial assignment was to assess the utilization of commercial space in the Towncrest Urban Renewal Area and to suggest sources of public financial support available for private sector developers. The study objectives evolved, however, as our analysis progressed. One, we limit our evaluation of commercial space to retail and office properties. The allocation of residential space in the Area remains an endeavor of future study. Two, we realized early in the semester a grasp of the myriad of highly specialized public financial support programs available at the state and federal levels was beyond our resource and time limitations. Thus, we defer advice of public support sources to community and economic development specialists.1 We do, notably, address the amount of financial support needed to induce early developers to undertake potentially risky projects in the Towncrest Area. Our analysis considers the perspectives of both the public (Iowa City community) and private (property owners and potential redevelopers) sectors. The Towncrest Urban Area is a 49.3 acre commercial center surrounded by residential neighborhoods within the Southeast Planning District of Iowa City, Iowa. As shown in the map below, the Area, which contains a mix of retail, restaurants, services, nonprofits, and housing, is bordered by Second Avenue to the west, E Street to the north, Baker Street to the east, and Wayne Street to the south. The commercial center of the Towncrest Area is the intersection of Muscatine Avenue and 1st Avenue that have daily traffic count of 10,150 and 15,800 cars, respectively, for an intersection average of 12,975. When the TURP was adopted in 2010 the Area had a tax assessed value of $39.89 million; 2010 Area tax revenue, which lags the timing of assessed values, was $1.489 million. Currently, the Area tax assessed value is $37.356 million (2013) with annual tax revenue of $1.274 million (2011). The declining assessed values and tax revenues are indicative of the need for Towncrest redevelopment.2 Importantly, new 2013 tax assessed property values show an improvement above the 2011 ($36.836 million) level that is the base year for an important source of public redevelopment funding. 1 One firm, the National Development Council, is currently on retainer by the City of Iowa City. 2 All Iowa City tax assessed values from the Iowa City Assessor and tax revenue from the Johnson County Treasurer. Excludes properties held by tax exempt owners. 3 B. The Towncrest Urban Renewal Plan The Towncrest Area was founded in the late 1950s and early 1960s as a high-end suburban medical office park. For many years Towncrest was economically vibrant, spurring growth in its commercial and residential areas. A lack of physical infrastructure reinvestment in recent decades led to deteriorating property values that ultimately reduced Towncrest to formal Slum and Blighted Area designation in 2009.3 The Towncrest Urban Renewal Plan (TURP) was approved by the City of Iowa City in 2010 to redevelop the Area and promote economic growth.4 Through reinvestment in infrastructure, the TURP intends to stimulate, with public financial support, private investment in Area commercial businesses and residential properties. A catalyst for the transformation process is provided in the TURP Design Manual, produced by RDG Planning Design. The Design Manual provides a vision for the desired physical character and infrastructure of a new Towncrest more conducive to both pedestrian and vehicular circulation. The broad objective of the comprehensive TURP is to expand Area taxable property values by revitalizing commercial and residential activity through a diversified mix of office, retail, and residential properties. TURP goals will be fostered by financial incentives the City will offer to qualifying projects and businesses as necessary. According to the Plan, public financial assistance alternatives include tax 3 As defined by Iowa Code 403.17. 4 http://www.icgov.org/site/CMSv2/file/planning/towncrest/TowncrestURP.pdf 4 increment financing (TIF), direct grants, loans, advances, indebtedness, bonds, tax abatements, a façade improvement program, a pre-development assistance program, and gap financing from a forecasted total budget of $10 to $15 million. The City may also provide direct or indirect financial incentives to incentivize private persons or businesses to locate in the Area. Other local, state and federal assistance may be available to support proposed projects depending on their eligibility and demonstrated need. Technical assistance identifying potential opportunities for the inclusion of funding will also be considered by the City. The City intends to use tax increment financing (TIF) as a primary incentive to finance the development and Area public infrastructure improvements. Infrastructure improvements may include demolition of existing buildings, site preparation, building design, building construction, paving and parking, landscaping, and installation of on-site utilities. Other possible forms of public support for qualifying commercial and/or residential developments include direct grants, loans, and rebates.5 The City has established the Catalyst Project Gap Financing Loan Program as an additional means of support for the development of commercial, residential and mixed-use projects in the Towncrest area.6 Gap financing in the form of forgivable loans up to $300,000 may be available to promote the development of one or more projects in the Area. City gap financing priority will be given to support the rehabilitation of existing structures and new construction. Further economic support is provided by the Towncrest Area Façade Improvement Program that provides incentives to improve the appearance of existing buildings and promote a positive image for Towncrest.7 The Improvement Program extends assistance to Towncrest property owners or business tenants who renovate or restore commercial building façades, including signage and lighting. Approved projects are eligible for a grant in the amount of 50-75% of the cost of façade improvement.8 The City 5 Qualifying projects will be determined by the City Council on a case by case basis and are subject to design compliance review by the Staff Design Review Committee. 6 The City of Iowa City: Gap Financing Forgivable Loan and Pre-Development Design Assistance Program. http://www.icgov.org/site/CMSv2/file/planning/towncrest/TowncrestCatalysProjectRFP.pdf 7 Towncrest Urban Renewal Area Design Plan Manual, 2010, RDG Planning and Design. http://www.icgov.org/site/CMSv2/file/planning/towncrest/TowncrestRedevelopmentArea.pdf 8 Certain criteria are required for the higher level of support as determined by the City Program Administrator. 5 has also established the Pre-Development Design Assistance Program to encourage the development of projects that have a transformative impact on the Towncrest area. The Assistance Program offers 50% matching grants of up to $25,000 for pre-development design assistance. Eligible uses include architectural design, structural engineering and environmental assessment services. The specific amount of public financial support (TIFs, direct grants, loans, advances, indebtedness, or bonds) for projects over time has not yet been determined but is estimated in the $10 to $15 million range. The City Council will consider each request for financial assistance or a project proposal on a case-by-case basis to determine if it is in the City’s best interest to participate. The Towncrest Urban Renewal Plan will remain in effect as a plan until it is repealed by the City Council. C. Plan Implementation Impediments We identify three impediments to attaining the Plan objectives. One, there is no formal process for implementing the Plan. The current state of the redevelopment process consists of piecemeal deals with multiple developers whose interests are not necessarily aligned with the community. For example, there are 19 health care providers in the Area that account for 23.5% of the 81 businesses and 50% of the Area service businesses (38).9 There will soon be 14,500 square feet of new medical space added to the Area with speculation of even more demand for health care services offices.10 This high concentration of medical offices is an inefficient spatial use distribution inconsistent with the tenant diversity objective of the Plan. Tenant diversification is a critical factor in determining the sustainability and efficiency of a revitalized Towncrest. We contend the Area needs to incorporate goods/services that will increase consumer traffic during traditional non-business hours (evenings and weekends). Some form of centralized planning is needed to coordinate the revitalization process and diversify the tenant mix. Second, as often happens with the announcement of publicly supported community projects, Towncrest commercial property listing prices have been inflated, presumably by the perceived benefits of the redevelopment (a positive externality). For example, there are currently five commercial properties listed 9 From the 2010 U.S. Census. The Towncrest area is technically defined as the 0.25 mile radius of 1st Avenue and Muscatine. 10 It should be noted the tenants of the new medical building are relocating from other Towncrest locations. 6 for sale in the Towncrest Area. The combined asking price of $7.785 million of the listed Towncrest properties represents an 82% premium above their collective tax assessed values ($4.274 million). In contrast, a sample of 18 commercial properties currently for sale in Iowa City outside the Towncrest Area have a combined listing price ($22.821 million) reflecting only a 55.9% premium to their tax assessed values ($14.639 million).11 Inflated Towncrest prices complicate the land acquisition process needed to acquire the critical land mass needed to efficiently redevelop the Area. Three, the form and amount of public financial incentives for developers, a critical and challenging component to incentivize the private sector, is uncertain. Although a $10 to $15 million dollar budget is referenced in the TURP, the City currently has only $1.4 million earmarked to Towncrest redevelopment. Additional funding will be underwritten on a needs basis. Notably, the Towncrest area is TIF eligible and TIFs are a viable option since 2013 tax assessed property values exceed the 2011 TIF base year tax value. II. RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS We analyze the Towncrest Retail Market Area (RMA) and compare the Area to another local retail market. The analysis examines the economic potential of the Area and identifies attractive retail niches to exploit. Each of the markets is measured at 0.25, 0.50, and 1.00 mile radiuses. For brevity, we limit our discussion to the 1 mile measure we feel is most representative. We also report median, rather than average, measures when possible. A. Towncrest RMA The population and income summary of the Towncrest RMA is provided in Table 1. The Towncrest area has a 2012 population of 12,369. Little population growth (0.93%) is expected in the next 5 years. The majority of the 5,487 Area households are families (57.4%) with an average size of 2.25 people. In contrast to population trends, relatively strong growth in income is expected in area income in the next 5 years. Annual growth in per capita income of $30,282 is expected to be 3.18% ($35,406) and median household income of $55,191 is forecasted to rise annually by 4.05% to $67,317 by 2017. Two thirds 11 Data from the Iowa City Area Multiple Listing Service and Iowa City Assessor. 7 (67.5%) of the households have annual income exceeding $50,000; nearly a quarter of (23.5%) have incomes exceeding $100,000. Importantly, the Towncrest Area exceeds Iowa and U.S. averages for per capita income (Iowa = 2.6%; U.S. = 2.5%) and household income (Iowa = 2.96%; U.S. = 2.55%). Demographic and housing data for the Towncrest RMA is summarized in Table 2. The population of the Area is largely white (85.3%) with a median age of 37.7 years. Approximately half the population is married (49.8%). The Area populace is highly educated with over half having either a bachelor (26.7%) or graduate degree (26.0%). Primary occupations are Sales and Office (22.1%) and Management, Business, and Financial Operations (11.6%), indicative of a largely white collar workforce. About two-thirds of the homes are single units (68.4%) that are owner occupied (66.5%), with a median home value of $156,175. The vacancy rate of 5%, well below the U.S. average of 8.6%, implies a stable Area housing market.12 Towncrest Area consumer trends are presented in Table 3. An examination of annual expenditures shows the average Towncrest household spends most on housing (Homes = $15,513), followed by Transportation ($7,614), Food and Beverage ($7,208) and Financial ($6,072) needs.13 Consumer demand and supply analysis shows three retail categories had a 2010 net surplus factor (where supply exceeds demand, measured in dollars): General Merchandise Stores (-$3,688,328), Health & Personal Care Stores (-$546,273), and Food and Beverage Stores (-$274,860). All other retail categories had a net leakage factor (where dollar demand exceeds dollar supply) lead by Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers (+$29,982,391), Gasoline Stations (+$13,162,566), and Food Services & Drinking Places (+$12,469,327). The remaining retail categories had leakage factors ranging between +$1,588,436 to +$3,422,088. These measures identify some attractive retail trade opportunities in the Area.14 Based upon our findings the Area can support many different kinds of retail businesses. However, we contend preference be given to an upscale restaurant/drinking establishment shown to be in demand by this data 12 U.S. housing data from the U.S. Census Bureau, April 30, 2013. 13 The Homes category consists of mortgage payments, maintenance and remodeling services and materials, and utilities, fuel and public services. 14 More detailed RMA tables are available from the authors upon request. 8 and by an earlier survey conducted by the City of Iowa City. Moreover, upscale restaurants and drinking establishments are often retail redevelopment catalysts that spur area visibility and increase consumer traffic, particularly during traditional non-business hours. B. Westside Iowa City RMA To assess the relative economic potential of the Towncrest RMA we compare it to another active Iowa City retail area. We selected the intersection of West Benton Street and Mormon Trek Boulevard as a commercial center for the Westside Iowa City Retail Market Area. The Westside RMA was selected, in large part, by the similar average intersectional daily traffic count (Mormon Trek = 19,120, Benton = 5,200, average intersection = 12,160) and proximity to the UI campus (Towncrest = 2.1 miles; Westside = 2.8 miles). The population and income summary for the Westside RMA is presented in Table 4. The two Iowa City RMAs share many economic and demographic similarities. The current population of the Westside RMA is slightly smaller (10,243) but has a higher growth forecast (1.23%). About half (47.8%) of the 4,700 households are families with an average size of 2.19 people. The Westside income (per capita = $38,805, median household = $54,053), annual income growth (per capita = 2.74%, median household = 4.72%) and income distribution measures mirror the Towncrest RMA income profile. As shown in Table 5, Westside Iowa City is largely white (74.1%), married (48.2%), and well educated (bachelor degree = 28.4%, graduate degree = 41.0%), like Towncrest. However, there are some notable demographic differences between the RMAs. One, the Westside median age of 28.7 years reveals a considerably younger populace. Two, more Westside homes are renter occupied (55.6%). Collectively, the age and rent measures reflect a higher student concentration in the Westside area. Three, the Westside workforce appears to be more white collar with the Professional and Other category comprising about half of jobs (49.4%), followed by Sales and Office (22.0%). Four, the median owner occupied 9 home value is $192,594. In sum, the average Westside consumer is comprised of a bivariate distribution of lower income students and relatively affluent professionals. Westside RMA consumption trends are provided in Table 6. Like Towncrest, the average Westside household spends most on Homes ($12,703), Transportation ($7,478), Food and beverage ($7,085), and Financial products ($5,755). In contrast to consumption expenditures, the two RMAs show notable differences in consumer demand and supply patterns. Only two Westside retail categories had a 2010 net surplus factor: Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers (-$3,353,481) and Building Materials (- $989,127). The remaining retail categories all had a net leakage factor led by Food and Beverage Stores (+$17,906,877), Food Services and Drinking Places (+$14,855,454), General Merchandise Stores (+$14,683,404), and Gasoline Stations (+$11,983,241). To conclude, consumer trends in the two RMAs are highly similar but consumption levels in Towncrest are consistently higher. This data further supports the economic potential of the Towncrest Area. III. REDEVELOPMENT MODELS We examine two regional redevelopments that model renewal success. The redevelopments, the New Bohemian District and the Iowa City Downtown District, provide examples of viable renewal plan implementation procedures and illustrate the benefits of revitalization. A. New Bohemia District, Cedar Rapids, IA The New Bohemia District (NewBo)in Cedar Rapids is an ideal proxy for community redevelopment success. New Bohemia (originally Oak Hill) was formed by Czech immigrants in 1871 on the east side of the Cedar River and south of downtown Cedar Rapids. The area thrived for many years but began a decline in the late 1960s. In the next two decades nearly one-third of housing units were demolished and industrial plants in the area closed, turning the area into blight. In 1999 the City of Cedar Rapids and members of the community developed a Neighborhood Planning Process to revitalize the New Bohemia District. The plan incorporated residential, commercial, 10 and community needs to improve living conditions for area residents and to promote commercial development. The New Bohemia Third Street Arts and Entertainment District Plan was adopted to redevelop industrial properties and existing commercial spaces. The objective of the Plan was to create a diverse district to attract artists, entrepreneurs, and new residents. Ultimately, NewBo became a designated Arts and Cultural District.15 However, with no lead developer and little cooperation among the existing property owners, the Plan made only marginal progress. The Great Flood of 2008 heavily damaged almost all properties in NewBo. The flood damage provided an incentive for many owners to sell their properties and vacate the area. This devastating Act of God created an opportunity for the City of Cedar Rapids to acquire a critical mass of land needed to centralize redevelopment planning. The revitalization process was coordinated by public and private partnerships such as the New Bohemia Main Street District formed in 2009. Another similar organization, the non-profit Neighborhood Development Corporation, was also created that year to acquire and redevelop properties (commercial and residential) within the guidelines of established City plans and policies. The NDC is managed by a nine person board of directors comprised of public officials and members of the business community. NewBo redevelopment has benefitted from a diverse array of federal, state, and local funding sources, including FEMA, Main Street Iowa, I-Jobs, and grants from the City of Cedar Rapids.16 One project of note invested $3.1 million in façade and other streetscape improvements to the NewBo District that are included in the TURP. Half of the NewBo streetscape improvements were funded by the City of Cedar Rapids and the rest through property tax value assessments.17 NewBo redevelopment efforts are showing strong signs of progress as renovated commercial properties are a diverse mix of new businesses and residents to the District. The early success of the NewBo redevelopment is documented by recent tax data. Tax assessed values in NewBo have increased 15 http://www.ndccedarrapids.org/new-bohemiaoak-hill-jackson/r 16 Some of these fund resources are flood related and, therefore, inapplicable to Towncrest redevelopment. 17 http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/New-Bohemia-Streetscape-Nearing-Completion-in-Cedar-Rapids-128210638.html 11 from $34.24 million in 2011 to $41.29 million in 2013. Tax revenue has also increased significantly from $389,135 (2009) to $667,289 (2011) in the past three years.18 The NewBo model illustrates the benefits of successful revitalization and offers important implications to City of Iowa City community planners on Plan implementation guidelines. B. Iowa City Downtown District Organizing downtown Iowa City business owners has roots in the 1970s when 65 business owners recognized the need to organize to improve the area business environment. In April 2012 the organization became a Self-Supported Municipal Improvement District (The Iowa City Downtown District) comprised of 280 businesses with 1.2 million square feet of commercial space in the formal Downtown district (bordered by Burlington Street to the south, Capitol Street to the west, Bloomington Street to the north, and Gilbert Street to the east) and the Northside Marketplace.19 The group is a non- profit organization that receives funds from tax levies paid by business in addition to funding from the University of Iowa. The broad objective of the ICDD is to enhance the image of the downtown area and create a destination area to eat, shop and entertain while promoting a clean, green and safe environment. The District partners with the business community creating a diverse market that supports educational, cultural, and entrepreneurial programs. Projects supported by the Iowa City Downtown District include Taste of Iowa City, Friday Night Concert Series, Iowa Arts Festival, and the Downtown Ambassadors, individual volunteers who pick up the downtown area and provide a clean safe community center. Similar to incentives in Towncrest, the City of Iowa City offers a Building Change Program that provides assistance for downtown owners to enhance buildings. Assistance is provided through economic development loans, forgivable loans, and grants made available by financial need and the characteristics of the project. 18 Data from the Cedar Rapids Assessor. 19 http://downtowniowacity.com/pages/the-district/members-service-area.php 12 Downtown business and property owners elected in 2012 to impose a tax levy to, in part, hire a business development manager and assistant manager for the District to market the area and undertake beautification projects. Owners pay $2 for every $1,000 of assessed tax value in excess of property taxes. The University of Iowa contributes an additional $100,000 annually. The funding formula currently produces annual revenue of $282,000.20 It is too early to assess to financial and economic impact of the SSMID on the Downtown District but tax assessed values in the District increased between 7-12% in 2013.21 Thus, early results for ongoing Downtown Iowa City redevelopment are encouraging. IV. PUBLIC FINANCIAL INCENTIVES The TURP recognizes a need for public financial support to revitalize the Area. We evaluate the costs of a developing a high profile property (“Towncrest Centre”) to assess the amount of public support needed to incentivize diversified private sector development. Our analysis focuses solely on the unlevered (no debt) property return and does not address the developer debt financing decision. The reader should note, however, most developers finance at least 50% of investments with debt, producing a levered return at least twice the unlevered property returns we report. Land costs and traffic counts make the 49,000 square foot block (4 lots) on the SW corner of the intersection of 1st Avenue and Muscatine most suitable for initial development.22 Based on other similar size properties we assume a one-story commercial building (ideally retail) of 14,000 square feet. We estimate $2 million to purchase the four lots and $650,000 for site development and preparation.23 At costs of $150 per square foot, the cost of constructing the building is $2.1 million. Collective construction costs, therefore, are $4.75 million. The project would commence June 2014 and have a 10- year investment horizon. Construction costs are summarized in Panel A of Table 7. 20 http://thegazette.com/2011/11/01/downtown-iowa-city-tax-district-gets-initial-city-council-support/ 21 Iowa City Tax Assessor 22 The City of Iowa City currently owns the parcel at 2229 Muscatine. Purchase of the other three parcels at 2221, 2211, and 2203 Muscatine, respectively, would have to be negotiated. 23 The preferred block between Towncrest Drive and Towncrest Lane is currently listed for sale at $6.3 million. 13 Market lease rates and operating expenses for tenancy beginning in June 2015 are provided in Panel B of Table 7. Area lease rates have been estimated in the $16-$18 per square foot per year range; we settle for a $17 rate with annual rent increases of $0.25.24 Lease terms are presented in Panel C. We assume tenants have triple net leases with 5 year terms.25 Finally, the market rates used in the analysis are contained in Panel D. Most notably, we assume a capitalization rate of 7% when the property is eventually sold in 10 years. Statements of project cash flows and for the sources and uses of funds are provided in Tables 8 and 9, respectively, for a strictly private sector project.26 A summary of the annual project internal rates of return (IRR) is presented at the bottom of Table 9 (no public subsidy) and in Panel E of Table 7. As shown, the project returns only 3.66% annually without any public support. Clearly, this meager return documents a strong need for a public financial incentive to induce developers to take redevelopment risk in the Towncrest Area. We make two subsequent revisions to construction costs to illustrate the impact of a public subsidy on project return. First, we reduce the land purchase cost to $1, effectively implying an upfront public subsidy of $2 million to offset land acquisition costs. As reported in Panel E of Table 7, this raises the annual property return to 11.84%. This level of property return may be acceptable to some investors, particularly Area medical office building developers with long-term tenant leases. Diversifying away from the medical office property base, however, will entail more risk and require greater developer financial incentive. Third, we reduce building construction costs by $500,000 to $1.6 million, creating a total subsidy of $2.5 million ($2 million land purchase and $500,000 in building construction costs). The higher subsidy produces an annual property return of 15.09% (Panel E of Table 7). We believe a 15% annual property return provides a strong incentive for development of a retail building that will diversify the tenant base per the TURP guidelines. Thus, our analysis implies $2 to $2.5 million in public support 24 We thank various area real estate professionals for providing revenue and costs estimates. 25 Tenants effectively pay operating expenses, taxes and insurance, and maintenance costs. 26 We use the commercial real estate industry standard Argus DCF Valuation software to conduct the analysis. Argus donated to software to the University of Iowa, restricting use solely for academic purposes such as this project. 14 is needed to inventive a keystone project that can begin to diversify the Towncrest tenant mix and increase Area consumer traffic. Importantly, our analysis assumes public support is provided in full at the beginning of the project so our estimates are measured in present value, or current dollar cost, terms.27 The subsidy can be provided in various forms (e.g., tax increment financing (TIF), direct grants, loans, advances, indebtedness, bonds, tax abatements) and can also structured over an extended period of time. V. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Successful Towncrest redevelopment will attract a diversity of tenants and amenities, producing a new synergistic flow of retail traffic and capital in the Area. However, the Plan fails to incorporate four key issues that complicate the revitalization process of the Towncrest Area. We contend these four issues must be addressed to successfully implement the TURP. First, there must be centralized planning coordinated by a lead planner who can acquire and develop the critical mass of land needed to attain Plan objectives. In the current state the redevelopment process consists of piecemeal deals with multiple developers whose interests may not align with the community. Land acquisition needed for a critical mass is also hampered by the unrealistic property values of existing Towncrest property owners. In the absence of a managed approach Towncrest redevelopment will not produce the stated diversity objectives of the Plan. The lead can be assumed by the public sector but an experienced private sector developer with strong ties to the community might be more effective.28 Another alternative is some type of public- private joint venture between a developer and the City that has been effective in many communities (e.g., NewBo). A centralized approach to redevelopment will not only better ensure the main objectives of tenant diversification and design consistency are implemented efficiently but should also more efficiently utilize public redevelopment financial assistance. 27 We remain available to revise or update the financial analysis at the City’s request. 28 We thank Bill Boecker of Fineline Diversified Development, Fort Worth, TX, for his suggestion. 15 Second, the City needs to coordinate redevelopment with current Area stakeholders (property owners and residents) to better align the redevelopment interests of the public and private sectors. We propose some form of organization such as a Self-Supported Municipal Improvement District (SSMID) to improve business conditions and, thereby, help raise Area property values. A SSMID can also be an effective means of funding part of the Design Plan streetscape improvements. For example, the excess $2 per $1,000 valuation formula used in Downtown Iowa City would generate almost $56,000 annually that can be applied to Area infrastructure and streetscape projects. A SSMID can also provide an outlet for residents to retain influence in the redevelopment process. Third, the initial site to incubate and stimulate redevelopment must be selected. Per the Design Plan, the City has indicated a preference for the block bounded by Towncrest Land and Towncrest Drive as the center of the redevelopment effort. We contend redevelopment should initiate on the full block bordering the southwest corner of the intersection of 1st Avenue and Muscatine. That intersection has the highest traffic flow in the Area providing the location visibility desired by developers. Also, since the City of Iowa City already owns a prime parcel of the block, a critical land mass may be acquired at a more reasonable cost. We estimate public assistance of at least $2 million to incentivize development of the block. Fourth, the total amount and form of public assistance to developers, particularly the initial investors, must be determined. Successful initial development tends to organically stimulate demand from the private sector. Thus, we believe the bulk public support should be directed to compensate early investors who take the largest risk. If managed efficiently, we believe the City can minimize public funding for the project. The City of Iowa City is to be commended for their efforts in creating the redevelopment plan and the design standards for the Towncrest Area. We believe, however, additional steps are needed to 16 effectively implement the Plan to attain the desired objectives. We believe our recommendations will more quickly, efficiently and effectively produce a revitalized Towncrest. 17 Table 1 TOWNCREST RETAIL MARKET AREA POPULATION & INCOME SUMMARY 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE POPULATION Census population (2010) 835 2,851 10,159 Estimated population (2012) 847 2,833 12,369 Projected population (2017) 902 2,919 12,964 Projected % change (2012-2017) 1.25% 0.60% 0.93% PER CAPITA INCOME Estimated per capita income (2012) $29,721 $29,890 $30,282 Projected per capita income (2017) $34,630 $34,789 $35,406 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 3.10% 3.08% 3.18% HOUSEHOLDS Census households (2010) 410 1,352 5,456 Estimated households (2012) 415 1,343 5,487 Projected households (2017) 440 1,380 5,759 Projected % change (2012-2017) 1.09% 0.4% 0.74% Average household size (2012) 2.04 2.11 2.25 Households with children (%) 23.9% 23.7% 26.4% Family households (%) 52.4% 54.5% 57.4% Non-family households (%) 12.4% 11.9% 11.7% Average non-family household size 1.24 1.30 1.36 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME Estimated household income (2012) $64,041 $65,025 $68,075 Projected household income (2017) $75,099 $75,772 $79,513 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 3.24% 3.11% 3.15% MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Estimated household income (2012) $51,626 $52,511 $55,191 Projected household income (2017) $64,456 $64,635 $67,315 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 4.54% 4.24% 4.05% HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION HH income $35,000+ 70.9% 79.9% 80.0% HH income $50,000+ 51.1% 65.0% 67.5% HH income $75,000+ 32.1% 42.9% 44.8% HH income $100,000+ 16.0% 20.5% 23.5% HH income $200,000+ 1.7% 2.0% 2.8% 18 Table 2 TOWNCREST RETAIL MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC & HOUSING SUMMARY 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE RACE & ETHNICITY (2010) White 87.8% 88.1% 85.3% Black or African American 6.5% 6.3% 7.8% Asian 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% Hispanic 3.9% 3.3% 5.1% MARITAL STATUS Population 15 years+ 604 2,094 10,159 Never married (men and women) 38.1% 38.4% 34.9% Now married 46.2% 45.4% 49.8% Widowed 5.5% 6.1% 4.9% Divorced 10.3% 10.1% 10.5% AGE DISTRIBUTION (2012) Median age (years) 37.6 38.7 37.7 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Adult population 25 years+ 480 1,633 8,144 Elementary (0-8) 1.2% 0.8% 1.1% Some high school (9-11) 2.5% 2.6% 1.6% High school graduate (12) 15.8% 16.1% 17.6% Some college (13-16) 16.3% 16.4% 13.4% Associate degree only 8.3% 7.7% 8.0% Bachelor degree only 26.0% 25.7% 26.7% Graduate degree 26.3% 25.7% 26.0% OCCUPATION (2009) Population 16 years+ 443 1,526 7,338 Mgmt., Business & Financial Operations 13.1% 14.0% 11.6% Professional and related 3.4% 4.2% 3.1% Service 5.6% 4.5% 3.9% Sales and Office 12.9% 24.0% 22.1% Farming, Fishery and Forestry 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction, Extraction & Maintenance 9.4% 9.5% 7.3% Production, Transport & Material Moving 2.9% 6.6% 6.6% HOUSING INVENTORY (2010) Total housing units 431 1,415 5,832 Housing units, occupied 95.1% 96.0% 95.0% Housing units, owner-occupied 63.6% 68.6% 66.5% Housing units, renter-occupied 31.6% 27.5% 28.4% Housing units, vacant 4.9% 4.0% 5.0% HOUSING UNITS (2010) Single (1 detached) 66.2% 72.7% 68.4% HOME VALUES (2010) Total owner housing units 279 929 4,161 Owner occupied median home value $150,342 $148,153 $156,175 Renter occupied median rent $643 $641 $638 19 Table 3 TOWNCREST RETAIL MARKET AREA CONSUMPTION TRENDS 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (2010) Apparel and Services $ 635,146 $ 2,046,965 $ 8,661,425 Computer $ 84,046 $ 269,683 $ 1,143,656 Entertainment and Recreation $ 1,223,426 $ 3,967,072 $ 16,779,250 Food and beverages $ 2,864,264 $ 9,228,749 $ 39,204,399 Financial $ 2,397,052 $ 7,737,874 $ 33,024,900 Health $ 242,247 $ 787,111 $ 3,368,100 Home $ 6,069,987 $ 20,014,569 $ 84,375,844 Household Finance and Equipment $ 469,619 $ 1,526,448 $ 6,461,282 Household Operations $ 610,012 $ 1,979,152 $ 8,400,834 Insurance $ 1,803,073 $ 5,849,806 $ 24,903,131 Transportation $ 3,011,527 $ 9,690,578 $ 41,413,367 Travel $ 523,270 $ 1,716,277 $ 7,220,139 HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES (2010) Apparel and Services $ 1,510 $ 1,505 $ 1,592 Computer $ 199 $ 198 $ 210 Entertainment and Recreation $ 2,910 $ 2,916 $ 3,085 Food and beverages $ 6,811 $ 6,785 $ 7,208 Financial $ 5,701 $ 5,688 $ 6,072 Health $ 576 $ 579 $ 619 Home $ 14,435 $ 14,715 $ 15,513 Household Finance and Equipment $ 1,118 $ 1,121 $ 1,187 Household Operations $ 1,451 $ 1,455 $ 1,544 Insurance $ 4,752 $ 4,300 $ 4,539 Transportation $ 7,162 $ 7,124 $ 7,614 Travel $ 1,244 $ 1,262 $ 1,327 CONSUMER SUPPLY & DEMAND (2010) Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $ 1,906,611 $ 6,105,433 $ 29,982,391 General Merchandise Stores $ 1,306,026 $ (3,526,182) $ (3,688,328) Food Services & Drinking Places $ 355,079 $ 671,036 $ 12,469,327 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $ 316,388 $ 511,683 $ 3,228,367 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $ 281,446 $ 368,984 $ 3,422,088 Electronics & Appliance Stores $ 220,134 $ 554,375 $ 2,390,945 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $ 111,341 $ 569,319 $ 3,324,820 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $ (36,841) $ 4,246 $ 1,588,436 Gasoline Stations $ (1,337,364) $ (722,129) $ 13,162,566 Health & Personal Care Stores $ (2,739,244) $ (3,244,637) $ (546,273) Food & Beverage Stores $ (11,564,388) $ (10,784,471) $ (274,860) 20 Table 4 WESTSIDE RETAIL MARKET AREA POPULATION & INCOME SUMMARY 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE POPULATION Census population (2010) 670 4,729 10,243 Estimated population (2012) 638 4,655 10,331 Projected population (2017) 616 4,762 10,983 Projected % change (2012-2017) -0.7% 0.46% 1.23% PER CAPITA INCOME Estimated per capita income (2012) $25,903 $28,164 $33,903 Projected per capita income (2017) $30,836 $33,227 $38,805 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 3.55% 3.36% 2.74% HOUSEHOLDS Census households (2010) 331 2,136 4,646 Estimated households (2012) 314 2,101 4,700 Projected households (2017) 302 2,146 5,016 Projected % change (2012-2017) -0.79% 0.42% 1.31% Average household size (2012) 2.02 2.21 2.19 Households with children (%) 28.1% 25.20% 23.70% Family households (%) 48.6% 47.80% 47.80% Non-family households (%) 15.4% 17.30% 17.20% Average non-family household size 1.28 1.46 1.45 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME Estimated household income (2012) $57,528 $61,060 $73,960 Projected household income (2017) $68,467 $72,004 $84,333 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 3.54% 3.35% 2.66% MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME Estimated household income (2012) $43,095 $43,537 $54,053 Projected household income (2017) $52,941 $54,176 $68,059 Projected annual % change (2012-2017) 4.20% 4.47% 4.72% HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION HH income $35,000+ 63.8% 62.7% 62.4% HH income $50,000+ 46.6% 46.0% 46.2% HH income $75,000+ 31.1% 29.6% 29.7% HH income $100,000+ 18.1% 19.3% 19.7% HH income $200,000+ 6.1% 4.3% 4.0% 21 Table 5 WESTSIDE RETAIL MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHIC & HOUSING SUMMARY 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE RACE & ETHNICITY (2010) White 63.6% 68.2% 74.1% Black or African American 15.4% 12.1% 8.2% Asian 15.8% 15.0% 13.4% Hispanic 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% MARITAL STATUS Population 15 years+ 590 3,302 8,496 Never married 36.8% 43.4% 44.4% Now married 53.9% 49.6% 48.2% Widowed 3.1% 2.1% 2.4% Divorced 6.3% 4.9% 5.1% AGE DISTRIBUTION (2010) Median age (years) 27.8 27.8 28.7 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Adult population 25 years+ 454 2,307 5,845 Elementary (0-8) 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% Some high school (9-11) 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% High school graduate (12) 7.3% 7.8% 7.9% Some college (13-16) 13.0% 12.9% 12.9% Associate degree only 9.0% 7.6% 7.0% Bachelor degree only 27.3% 27.5% 28.4% Graduate degree 40.7% 41.3% 41.0% OCCUPATION (2010) Population 16 years+ 411 2,373 6,079 Mgmt., Business & Financial Operations 9.5% 9.7% 9.8% Professional and related 52.8% 49.6% 49.4% Service 12.9% 11.8% 12.0% Sales and Office 16.5% 21.7% 22.0% Farming, Fishery and Forestry 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Construction, Extraction & Maintenance 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% Production, Transport & Material Moving 6.1% 5.4% 5.0% HOUSING INVENTORY (2010) Total housing units 357 2,290 4,929 Housing units, occupied 92.7% 93.3% 94.3% Housing units, owner-occupied 36.3% 35.3% 44.4% Housing units, renter-occupied 63.7% 64.7% 55.6% Housing units, vacant 7.9% 7.2% 6.1% HOUSING UNITS (2010) Single (1 detached) 37.4% 35.1% 37.0% HOME VALUES (2010) Total owner housing units 111 731 2065 Owner occupied median home value $179,543 $183,403 $192,594 Renter occupied median rent $568.00 $593.00 $602.00 22 Table 6 WESTSIDE RETAIL MARKET AREA CONSUMPTION TRENDS 0.25 MILE 0.50 MILE 1.00 MILE CONSUMER EXPENDITURES (2010) Apparel and Services $ 361,040 $ 2,713,105 $ 7,547,460 Computer $ 48,656 $ 371,989 $ 1,029,477 Entertainment and Recreation $ 653,356 $ 4,816,877 $ 13,478,994 Food and beverages $ 1,597,231 $ 11,973,993 $ 33,363,936 Financial $ 1,323,343 $ 9,708,702 $ 27,099,090 Health $ 117,398 $ 875,114 $ 2,464,300 Home $ 2,985,742 $ 21,176,864 $ 59,820,162 Household Finance and Equipment $ 250,265 $ 1,835,131 $ 5,138,777 Household Operations $ 194,062 $ 1,377,128 $ 3,860,766 Insurance $ 728,287 $ 5,378,424 $ 15,116,908 Transportation $ 1,704,026 $ 12,664,448 $ 35,212,675 Travel $ 264,215 $ 1,903,563 $ 5,371,423 HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES (2010) Apparel and Services $ 1,125 $ 1,267 $ 1,603 Computer $ 152 $ 174 $ 219 Entertainment and Recreation $ 2,035 $ 2,250 $ 2,862 Food and beverages $ 4,976 $ 5,593 $ 7,085 Financial $ 4,123 $ 4,535 $ 5,755 Health $ 366 $ 409 $ 523 Home $ 9,301 $ 9,891 $ 12,703 Household Finance and Equipment $ 780 $ 857 $ 1,091 Household Operations $ 605 $ 643 $ 820 Insurance $ 2,269 $ 2,512 $ 3,210 Transportation $ 5,308 $ 5,915 $ 7,478 Travel $ 823 $ 889 $ 1,141 CONSUMER SUPPLY & DEMAND (2010) Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $ ,738,911 $ ,348,661 $ (3,353,481) General Merchandise Stores $ 1,157,501 $ 5,500,047 $ 14,683,404 Food Services & Drinking Places $ 1,434,249 $ 6,473,779 $ 14,855,454 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores $ 194,545 $ 526,882 $ (989,127) Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $ 399,022 $ 1,846,715 $ 4,596,357 Electronics & Appliance Stores $ 242,156 $ 1,110,579 $ 2,701,614 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $ 231,159 $ 1,022,826 $ 2,268,552 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores $ 213,304 $ 982,092 $ 2,397,294 Gasoline Stations $ 1,351,806 $ 5,826,641 $ 11,983,241 Health & Personal Care Stores $ 230,640 $ 1,138,504 $ 3,350,269 Food & Beverage Stores $ 1,598,718 $ 7,331,375 $ 17,906,877 23 Table 7 TOWNCREST CENTRE DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS Panel A: Building Costs/Dimensions Building Size: commercial 14,000 SF Floors 1 Land purchase $2,000,000 Pad Ready Costs $650,000 Building Costs $2,100,000 Panel B: Rent and Operating Expenses Market Rent Commercial $17/SF/Year Annual Step Rent Increase $0.25 Second Year Operating Costs: (6/2015-5/2016) Property Tax $149,387/Year29 Insurance $5,762/Year Maintentance $21,250/Year Utilities $5,097/Year Other/Service/Supplies $4,875/Year Management Fee 4% EGR Capital Reserve $.25/SF/Year Panel C: Market Leasing Assumptions Tenant Renewal Probability 65% Vacancy Between Tenants 3 Months Tenant Improvements $10/New $5/Renewal Leasing Commissions 3%/New Lease Type Triple Net Lease Term: Commercial 5 Years Panel D: Capital Market Assumptions General Inflation 3.00% Rent Growth 4.00% General Vacancy 3.00% Credit Loss 4.00% Exit Cap Rate 7.00% Discount Rate 7.50% Investment Horizon 10 Years Panel E: Project Return Summary (unlevered) Public Subsidy = $0 3.66% Public Subsidy = $2.0 million 11.84% Public Subsidy = $2.5 million 15.09% 29 Tax assessed value is cost of $4.75 million less 15%. Tax levy is $37/$1,000 of assessed value. Table 8 TOWNCREST CENTRE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (no public subsidy) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 For the Years Ending May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020 May-2021 May-2022 May-2023 May-2024 May-2025 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Potential Gross Revenue Base Rental Revenue $19,833 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $238,000 $249,717 $393,745 Absorption & Turnover Vacancy -31,550 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Scheduled Base Rental Revenue 19,833 238,000 238,000 238,000 238,000 238,000 238,000 238,000 238,000 218,167 393,745 Base Rental Step Revenue 292 3,792 7,292 10,792 14,292 17,792 21,292 24,792 25,667 Total Potential Gross Revenue 33,820 410,274 419,670 423,417 427,172 430,927 434,682 438,436 442,475 409,838 579,034 General Vacancy -1,015 -12,308 -12,590 -12,703 -12,815 -12,928 -13,040 -13,153 -13,274 -17,371 Collection Loss -1,353 -16,411 -16,787 -16,937 -17,087 -17,237 -17,387 -17,537 -17,699 -16,394 -23,161 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Effective Gross Revenue 31,452 381,555 390,293 393,777 397,270 400,762 404,255 407,746 411,502 393,444 538,502 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Operating Expenses Property tax 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 149,388 Insurance 818 9,920 10,148 10,238 10,329 10,420 10,511 10,601 10,699 10,230 14,001 Maintenance 723 8,776 8,977 9,057 9,137 9,218 9,298 9,378 9,465 9,049 12,386 Utilities 63 763 781 788 795 802 809 815 823 787 1,077 Service, supplies, other 692 8,394 8,586 8,663 8,740 8,817 8,894 8,970 9,053 8,656 11,847 Mgmt fee 1,258 15,262 15,612 15,751 15,891 16,030 16,170 16,310 16,460 15,738 21,540 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Total Operating Expenses 3,554 192,503 193,492 193,885 194,280 194,675 195,070 195,462 195,888 193,848 210,239 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Net Operating Income 27,898 189,052 196,801 199,892 202,990 206,087 209,185 212,284 215,614 199,596 328,263 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Leasing & Capital Costs Tenant Improvements 127,000 Leasing Commissions 59,062 Site preparation 650,000 Building 2,100,000 reserve 3,605 3,713 3,825 3,939 4,057 4,179 4,305 4,434 4,567 4,704 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Total Leasing & Capital Costs 2,750,000 3,605 3,713 3,825 3,939 4,057 4,179 4,305 4,434 4,567 190,766 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Cash Flow Before Debt Service ($2,722,102)$185,447 $193,088 $196,067 $199,051 $202,030 $205,006 $207,979 $211,180 $195,029 $137,497 & Taxes ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Income Tax -15,096 10,130 12,039 12,782 13,525 14,268 15,010 15,751 16,549 12,509 44,639 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Cash Flow After Taxes ($2,707,006)$175,317 $181,049 $183,285 $185,526 $187,762 $189,996 $192,228 $194,631 $182,520 $92,858 =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== Table 9 TOWNCREST CENTRE DEVELOPMENT SOURCES & USES OF FUNDS (no public subsidy) 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 For the Years Ending May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020 May-2021 May-2022 May-2023 May-2024 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Sources Of Capital Net Operating Gains $27,898 $189,052 $196,801 $199,892 $202,990 $206,087 $209,185 $212,284 $215,614 $199,596 Initial Equity Contribution 2,000,000 Net Proceeds from Sale 4,548,787 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Defined Sources Of Capital 2,027,898 189,052 196,801 199,892 202,990 206,087 209,185 212,284 215,614 4,748,383 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Required Equity Contributions 2,722,102 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Total Sources Of Capital $4,750,000 $189,052 $196,801 $199,892 $202,990 $206,087 $209,185 $212,284 $215,614 $4,748,383 =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== Uses Of Capital Property Purchase Price $2,000,000 Tenant Improvements Leasing Commissions Capital Costs & Reserves 2,750,000 3,605 3,713 3,825 3,939 4,057 4,179 4,305 4,434 4,567 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Defined Uses Of Capital 4,750,000 3,605 3,713 3,825 3,939 4,057 4,179 4,305 4,434 4,567 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Cash Flow Distributions 185,447 193,088 196,067 199,051 202,030 205,006 207,979 211,180 4,743,816 ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ ___________ Total Uses Of Capital $4,750,000 $189,052 $196,801 $199,892 $202,990 $206,087 $209,185 $212,284 $215,614 $4,748,383 =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== =========== Unleveraged Cash On Cash Return Cash to Purchase Price -136.11%9.27%9.65%9.80%9.95%10.10%10.25%10.40%10.56%9.75% NOI to Book Value 0.59%3.98%4.14%4.20%4.26%4.32%4.38%4.44%4.51%4.17% Cash to Purchase Price & Costs -136.11%9.27%9.65%9.80%9.95%10.10%10.25%10.40%10.56%9.75% Unleveraged Annual IRR 3.66%